Wednesday, September 7, 2016
Libertarian Party Electoral College Strategy
Written on July 30th and September 7th, 2016
Edited on October 5th, 2016
Expanded on November 23rd, 2016
Note: all information contained herein - with the exception of the final image - is based on 2012 vote totals. Similar data based on 2016 vote totals will be available soon; either on this page, or in a new blog entry.
In order to reduce the Democrats to the 260-to-269-vote level that is necessary for the Libertarians' potential electoral votes to deny both parties the 270 votes necessary to win the electoral college, Trump would have to take Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and either or both Iowa and Nevada in order to reduce the Democrats to that level. That would prompt the House of Representatives to elect the president.
The 6 electoral outcomes pictured below would deny Democrats and Republicans the 270 votes necessary to win.
The next map (below) shows which states would go to which party - in the event of Gary Johnson winning just enough states to achieve the 270 electoral votes required to be elected - but only for the Democratic and Republican parties.
Blue = Democratic Party, Red = Republican Party.
The states shown in gray represent Libertarian wins. The darkest states represent the states most likely to be won by Libertarians first; with Florida 28th and last. The numbers represent each state's place in that ranking, ranked according to how many percentage points the Libertarian Party lacks in comparison with the highest polling presidential candidate in each state.
Utah, New Mexico, Alaska, and Colorado appear to be the four states most likely to see Libertarian victories in the electoral college, with Maine, Maryland, and Minnesota in a three-way tie for fifth.
This third and final map (below) shows which states would go to which party, in the event of Gary Johnson winning just enough states to achieve the 270 electoral votes required to be elected to the presidency without the House of Representatives voting on the matter.
Yellow = Libertarian Party, Blue = Democratic Party, Red = Republican Party.
For Gary Johnson to win Florida would secure the Libertarian Party between 291 and 298 electoral votes (depending on the outcomes in Maine and Nebraska).
A map comparing Gary Johnson's total vote percentages in 2012 and 2016.
Some 2016 vote totals may reflect incomplete results.