Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Consequences of Trump’s Victory Are All About Probability

Written on November 16th, 2016

Edited on November 17th, 2016


             We elected a random policy generator president.
            Sure, it may seem to many of us that president-elect Trump has been intentionally ambiguous about many of his policies, in order to keep his foreign and domestic rivals guessing, so he can stay one step ahead of them. Others among us may believe that he is simply the ultimate flip-flopper, and that he only changes his views when it is politically expedient, and necessary to gain support.
Still others believe that he is genuinely indecisive, and that he lacks knowledge about many policy topics. Perhaps he is like many young people today; maybe he stopped taking things seriously a long time ago, so much so that now, he can't even tell when he's being sarcastic, and so he paints himself into a corner until he has no choice but to double-down on his often outrageous and dubious assertions. And maybe the fact that he repeatedly gets away with it, is the fault of a Fourth Estate that keeps giving him 72 hours to change his mind before he gives an interview that’s to be taken as his final say on the matter.
But one thing seems certain: Donald J. Trump is a walking illustration of particle physicist Werner Heisenberg's uncertainty principle; the less you know about his position, the more you know about his momentum, and vice-versa. As a comment on a political spectrum meme recently explained, “Trump is too high-energy and all-over-the-place to stay in one quadrant”. Politically speaking, Trump is an unpredictable particle; God only knows where he is going, but he is going there fast.

The meme
After all, this is a man who simultaneously campaigned on the promises of achieving "universal health care" while also "getting rid of" the state lines that inhibit the freedom of interstate commerce in health insurance purchase. Therefore it should come as no surprise that he has backed off from his pledge to repeal the deceptively-named Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, vowing to keep in place the part of the law which requires plans and issuers that offer dependent child coverage to cover young adults until they turn 26 and qualify for open enrollment.
So too is he the man who, during his campaign, described himself as "100% pro-life", even going so far as to consider the possibility that women could be punished in the event that abortion were to be outlawed; whereas 17 years ago he told Tim Russert that he described himself as “very pro-choice” and “strongly for choice”, adding that he hates the concept of abortion, but did not wish to ban the arguably infanticidal procedure known as partial-birth abortion which he now supposedly wants outlawed. Recently, Trump has stated that Roe v. Wade can be overturned, and that he intends to nominate Supreme Court justices who would seek to do so.
Not only that; Trump has backed off of his pledge to appoint a special prosecutor to the Hillary Clinton e-mail case, and ensure that she go to prison. What’s more, he has also backed down from his promise to overturn the decision in Obergefell v. Hodges - in which the Supreme Court ruled that states be required to issue same-sex marriage licenses, and recognize same-sex marriages which are valid in other states – calling it “settled law”, and adding that he’s “fine” with gay marriage.
But we’re not finished: since early 2016, some have speculated that Trump’s proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexico border will not be a physical one, but merely a “symbolic” wall; among them Trump foreign policy and terrorism adviser Walid Phares, who in September told Paris-based news channel France24, “Trump’s wall is only symbolic, and the candidate only launched this extreme policy proposal to raise attention.”
This came the month after Trump asked an audience in Austin, Texas whether undocumented immigrants with otherwise clean criminal records, who have lived in the United States for several decades, should be deported. The spontaneous crowd-sourcing poll, which he conducted eight times in a row (in order to get a clear answer) revealed that that audience slightly favored allowing them to stay, but did not favor allowing them to become U.S. citizens. That night, Trump said he agreed with a man in the audience who favored deportation, adding “We’re going to come out with a decision very soon.”
Additionally, Trump’s support of the Fourth-Amendment-ignoring proposed “No Fly, No Buy” legislation (although he acknowledges that some people on no-fly lists and terror watch lists do not belong there), seems somewhat at-odds with his support for expanding the legality of concealed-carry permits.
Trump’s apparent inconsistency on abortion, Obamacare, same-sex marriage, deportation and the wall, and gun control, demonstrate a stark contrast to the principle behind his stated position on the taxation of businesses; that is, the principle of providing the kind of certainty that leads to safe and stable investments in domestic employment. On the other hand, these so-called “positions” seem to fit his foreign policy theme of intentional ambiguity.
So what are we to make of a president-elect who wants to privatize public infrastructure, and outlaw flag burning, while also keeping gay marriage legal and promising to turn the Republican Conference into a “workers’ party”? Is Trump indecisive, is he a moderate, or is he a shrewd negotiator determined not to let anyone read his poker face?
Perhaps he is simply Door Number Three from the game show “Let’s Make a Deal”. Maybe he is a pretty pink box covered with question marks, sitting on the desk of “Simpsons” billionaire C. Montgomery Burns, for which his supporters are willing to trade away not only Door Number One and Door Number Two, but also the freedom to make a decisive, informed choice between them.

"The box, the box!"

Speculation abounds regarding whether Trump’s difficulty getting along with the Republican and Democratic establishments will hinder his ability to get his policy objectives through. So too are many asking whether his supporters will let him get away with betraying them on the issues of health, abortion, marriage, immigration, and guns, if that is indeed what he even intends to do.
Donald’s Trump’s indecision and doubling-down – coupled with his disagreements with his often unruly supporters, and the division which his Austin audience revealed in August – demonstrate that he is a Schrödinger’s Candidate; that he has let the cat out of Pandora’s Bag, but is having trouble putting it back into the tube of toothpaste.
On the other hand, maybe Trump is the cesium atom, the American public is the cat, and we’re in a quantum superposition of states until Inauguration Day. Maybe we’re in the midst of a transition period, in which America – in a demonstration of faith, through a single capricious vote – has already been made the Great-Again which it never wasn’t, but we also just experienced the worst thing that has happened to this country since 9/11. And what are the odds that that is true? As a wise man once said, “Don’t ever tell me the odds.”
So the questions remains: “Random number generators have won wars, but can a random policy generator fix a broken country? Will Donald Trump, the Human Wonder-Waffle, unite what is arguably the most divided electorate this country has ever seen? Will he manage to forge even a tentative alliance with the quasi-nihilistic so-called ‘moderates’ of each major party’s establishment?” In this writer’s opinion, we find our answer in what yet another wise man once said: “Sticking together is what good waffles do.”

Two patriotic Americans of opposing political parties
break bread in a symbolic gesture of cooperation

Friday, November 11, 2016

On Circumcision

Written on November 11th, 2016

Edited on November 17th, 2016




     Twelfth century rabbi Moshe ben Maimon (also known as Maimonides, or the Rambam) admitted that the purpose of circumcision is to reduce sexual sensitivity and pleasure. Contrary to the American Medical Association (A.M.A.) 's prior position, circumcision has no proven medical benefits. Fortunately, however, the A.M.A. no longer recommends circumcising boys at birth.

     Circumcision does not reduce the risk of transmission of sexually transmitted diseases (S.T.D.s) as its proponents claim (to be precise, they only claim that it may). It actually unnecessarily opens the body up to infection by exposing unprotected areas to the elements; this increases the risk of contracting blood-borne illnesses. Evidence suggests that circumcision increases the risk of contracting syphilis, H.I.V. (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) infection rates are lower in countries where males are not routinely circumcised, and claims that circumcision may reduce the risk of contracting H.P.V. (Human Papilloma Virus) are dubious because there is no way to test males for H.P.V..


      Too many parents make the mistake of believing that circumcision promotes sexual health; and that the benefits of not having to clean as much of their children's genitals, outweighs the detriments associated with risk of contracting diseases (that is, if they're even aware of that risk).

     While circumcision reduces sensitivity, it also leaves scars that can recur and cause pain long into adulthood, including pain during sexual intercourse. Reduced sensitivity, coupled with pain and scarring, can cause sex to become less frequent. This can lead to emotional detachment from one's sexual partner(s), which can lead to difficulty sustaining sexual relationships.

     The removal of the foreskin at birth, occurring before informed consent is even possible, can result in feelings of incompleteness, and sexual and personal inadequacy. These feelings can lead to, and exacerbate, D.I.D. (Dissociative Identity Disorder) and gender dysphoria. When part of one's genitals are removed, one may experience feelings of separation and dissociation from the person who underwent the operation; this causes the feeling that the disfigurement actually happened to someone else, and the sense that one's current persona is distinct from the person they were born as.


     Additionally, botched circumcisions can leave boys with mutilated genitalia; the resulting incompleteness of the genitals and loss of correct function can cause boys to cease identifying as male altogether. Botched circumcisions can also cause massive blood loss, and cause problems that cannot be fully corrected for years.

     The ensuing frustration, and hindered ability to build healthy emotional relationships with people on a social level, can motivate aggressive behaviors. These feelings can even motivate rape; a person who has been deprived of their natural rights of bodily self-ownership and physical integrity, may be more likely to commit rape as an act of sexual self-empowerment.

     Circumcision is a barbaric, archaic ritual which has no medical merit, and creates more social and sexual health problems than it solves. The practice should be shunned by anyone who understands that an individual human being has rights to his entire body. Furthermore, circumcision should be considered genital mutilation, and even child sexual abuse. Therefore, in my opinion, doctors who perform such procedures should have medical malpractice suits brought against them.

     Circumcision performed upon people who have not yet reached the age of consent, should be prohibited. However, it would behoove circumcision opponents (so-called "intactivists", a portmanteau of "intact" and "activists") to include a religious exemption to such a legal prohibition, in order to avoid trampling upon the rights of religious communities (namely, Jews) who consider the practice to be part of a sacred covenant (called brit milah) which unites the genitals of the "patient" with the head of the mohel and G-d, symbolizing a completion of the Jewish Tree of Life (Etz haChayim).

     On a final note, claims that circumcision reduces the risk of contracting herpes, do not hold up well in light of the fact that a handful babies die each year after being infected with herpes by mohels performing the ritual metzitzah b'peh following circumcision.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Thoughts on the Gold Standard

Written on October 21st, 2016

Edited and Expanded on October 25th, 2016














     It has been said that all of the existing mined gold which currently exists in the country, would not be enough to support backing the national currency with gold deposits. I do not doubt that this is true.
     However, I believe that if the federal government were to practice fiscal solvency and responsibility, balance the budget, eliminate the budget deficit, and take steps toward paying off the debt, then not as much gold (and other precious metals; namely silver, palladium, and copper) would be needed to back the currency.
     This is because eliminating the federal budget deficit would make it unnecessary to engage in Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist -type programs, which essentially involve the Department of the Treasury printing new paper fiat currency "out of thin air". As a result, debt is built into the value of the dollar; thus, the value and purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar is diluted, and inflation increases.
     It is this Quantitative Easing, and inflation, and building debt into the value of the dollar, which cause currency users to spend it more quickly than they otherwise would. Inflation causes the money to "burn a hole in the pocket" of the currency user; some call this effect "the inflation tax on savings". The value of the dollar is declining as it sits in Americans' pockets; this gives currency users an incentive to spend money now - or as soon as possible - rather than spending it later, and rather than saving it for the long-term.
     As a result of all this, people spend most of their money to buy ordinary consumer goods that they need on a day-to-day basis; instead of saving that money, and instead of spending their money on things that they will need for the long-term - namely, and most importantly, homes - items that are long-term stores of value.
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     It is important to note about gold - and other precious metals - that they have more value in their exchange than they have in their use (at least in terms of productive, personal use to the average person, who possesses the metals for non-industrial purposes). Although gold and silver have industrial uses in electronics - and arguably some personal use in jewelry and silverware - they have little use to the average person, who possesses them for savings purposes.
     These facts render the value of precious metals' uses as currency, greater than their value for productive industrial uses; and it is the conversion of these metals into their productive industrial uses which gives the metals their high store of value as a medium of exchange. Widespread agreement among consumers that goods which count gold and silver (etc.) among their raw materials, are beneficial, is what makes precious metals viable currencies.
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     To recap: if the budget were balanced, the debt were paid off, inflation were driven down to zero, and the purchasing power of the dollar were stable and / or rising, then as a result, overall fiscal policy were to incentivize savings instead of immediate spending.
     If that were to happen, then people would be able to devote more attention to spending money towards procuring their long-term needs, such as houses in which they can live for decades (rather than towards obtaining the goods and services which they need every day), then the necessity of engaging in trade and commerce would decrease overall. This is because the more expensive long-term needs could be more easily obtained, due to the positive impact which inflation relief has upon savings. Decreasing sales taxes, excise taxes, luxury taxes, customs duties, imposts, and tariffs, could serve to further offset the disincentivizing effects on purchasing which are created by the "inflation tax on savings" which budgetary insolvency makes seem necessary.
     When people can easily afford what they need, they save more, they spend less value, they don't have to work as many hours, and they have extra time left over to devote to planning their purchases in ways that save them even more time and money in the process.
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     With (1) diminished consumer need to buy expensive long-term items, (2) strengthened purchasing power that makes it just as much easier to buy short-term goods (as compared to long-term goods), (3) more money in savings accounts, and (4) less money being spent in the marketplace; less currency would need to circulate in order to ensure that the medium of exchange reaches all the people it needs to, and reaches them in the amounts and value necessary to buy what they need.
     And when less currency needs to circulate, lower amounts of a value-storing medium of exchange  need to exist in order to back up the value of the U.S. Dollar. Simply put, the gold standard would be much easier to implement given successful implementation of the fiscal reform measures which I have outlined above.
     Speaking strictly in terms of the currently dominant paper fiat currency (as opposed to precious metals), less "faith and credit" in the treasury and banking systems are required to prop up this rapidly depreciating, failed, arguably unconstitutional currency.
     Here's to hoping that the value and purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar will be saved before our currency becomes yet another failed faith-based program.


Saturday, October 15, 2016

Links to Articles About My 2016 Congressional Campaign

Letter to the Editor of the Daily Herald (written by my campaign manager Phil Collins)
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20161014/discuss/161019357/



Letter to the Editor of the Chicago Tribune (not published)http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/letter-to-editor-of-chicago-tribune-on.html



Article in the Lake Forest Patch, written by Tim Moran
http://patch.com/illinois/lakeforest/lake-bluff-man-plans-run-10th-district-representative




Self-Authored Press Release
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/03/independent-candidate-enters-race-for.html




Trifold Pamphlet and 2016 Campaign Policieshttp://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/09/2016-us-house-campaign-trifold-pamphlet.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/09/positions-on-45-issues-for-my-2016.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/08/positions-on-39-issues-for-my-2016-us.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-congressional-campaign-policies.html



Illinois Center Right Coalitionhttp://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/07/address-to-illinois-center-right.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/08/response-to-illinois-center-right.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/08/speech-to-ilinois-center-right.html
https://thegrandinquirer.com/2016/08/22/joe-kopsick-speaks-to-the-illinois-center-right-coalition/



Illinois LiberTEA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWtR-qSnVeo
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/07/response-to-illinois-libertea.html

Speech to the Chicago Libertarian Party

http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/speech-to-chicago-libertarian-party-on.html


Comparison of my positions to Dold's and Schneider's
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/bob-dold-brad-schneider-and-joe-kopsick_12.html



17 Questions for Dold and Schneiderhttp://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/seventeen-questions-for-bob-dold-and.html



Other Recent Articleshttp://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2015/12/guns-terrorism-and-immigration-reaction.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2015/12/papers-please-freedom-vs-permission.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/01/hammond-v-united-states.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/02/sanderss-foreign-policy-silence-hides.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/04/government-is-source-of-corporate.html

http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/04/health-care-and-health-insurance-where.html

http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/states-could-experiment-with-resource.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/296-people-who-want-women-to-register.html
http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2016/10/take-marijuana-off-schedule-i.html



Official Campaign Facebook Grouphttps://www.facebook.com/groups/Kopsick2016/?ref=bookmarks