The map below shows how a Green Party presidential nominee, or the presidential nominee of a socialist party, could win the electoral college.
In the map below, which was created on http://www.270towin.com/, Republicans are shown in red, Democrats are shown in blue, and Greens (or socialists) are shown in green.
I believe that this is one of the most likely scenarios allowing a Green nominee to win the presidency. That candidate would have to win a simple majority - not even 50% plus one, that candidate just has to get more votes than any other presidential candidate - in each of the respective states shown in green.
The reason why I believe that this is one of the most likely scenarios which would allow a Green nominee to win the presidency, is because of the three assumptions I have made in order to create this graph. Those assumptions are:
1) Donald Trump will be nominated by the Republican Party, and he will win the same states he won in 2016, except for states he would lose to the Democratic and Green candidates as the result of a viable Green candidate entering the race;
2) Joe Biden will be nominated by the Democratic Party, and he will win all states that Trump and the Green nominee do not win; and
3) whomever is nominated by the Green Party in early July (most likely Howie Hawkins) will win the set of states whose voters came out the strongest for Jill Stein (the Green Party's 2016 nominee), but only as many of them as would be necessary to add up to 270 or more.
This may be an unlikely set of assumptions, but that is what it will take to produce a Green Party or socialist victory in the Electoral College. The statistics which I ran, show that Wyoming, Iowa, Ohio, and New Jersey would be the most likely to end up as "swing states", but it's also likely that virtually all of the states shown in gray and blue, could end up being "swing states".
To put that another way, support for Biden and the Democratic Party would shrink drastically, if the top two contenders for the presidency turned out to be Donald Trump and Howie Hawkins (or Dario Hunter, the second most viable candidate in the Green Party's primaries).
To take the Electoral College, the Green Party nominee would have to win all of the states shown in green, plus at least one or two of the states shown in gray (or, if not those, then one or two of the states shown in blue).
Image created by Joe Kopsick on June 25th, 2020
The image below was used to create the set of statistics, regarding support for Jill Stein in each state, which were used to predict the viability of a Green Party candidate in 2020.
Image not created by the author of this blog
Percentages of support for Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson - but not Jill Stein - can be viewed at the following link:
Information regarding support for Donald Trump in each state, was taken from the above link, in order to calculate the states most likely to turn out for Trump in the event that the Green Party wins the Electoral College by increasing support in all of the states in which Greens are already supported the most per capita.
The 2020 Green Party National Convention will be held from July 9th to 12th, in Detroit, Michigan. The nominating convention will begin at noon Eastern Time on Saturday, July 11th, and it will be broadcast live.
That means we will know that afternoon who the Green Party's 2020 presidential nominee will be, and the stage will be set for the presidential race (the Constitution, Libertarian, and P.S.L. parties having already chosen their candidates; Don Blankenship, Jo Jorgensen, and Gloria LaRiva respectively).
Written and Published on June 25th, 2020
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