Most Likely Path to Electoral College Victory for Howie Hawkins and the Green Party

     The map below shows what I believe is the Green Party's most likely path to victory in the Electoral College in 2020.

     This map assumes that Hawkins will win most of the states in which the Green Party currently has ballot access for the November 3rd, 2020 election. Of those states, the states which supported Jill Stein the least in 2016, are assumed to have too weak a level of support for the Green Party, to muster a Hawkins victory. The map also assumes that it will be easier for Hawkins to win write-in campaigns in Kansas and Wisconsin, than it will be to win the State of Texas.

     The map was created on http://www.270towin.com/.

Click to enlarge

     Sources used to create the map above:

     Green Party ballot access, 2020:
     http://howiehawkins.us/ballotaccess/

     Support for Jill Stein in each state, 2016:
     http://www.google.com/search?q=2016+jill+stein+results&safe=off&sxsrf=ALeKk00dCSbtI8hvpS7CgOL_vATK7xDo_g:1600319190175&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiC4O3Gte_rAhUFKa0KHdJOAAAQ_AUoAXoECBEQAw&biw=1396&bih=686#imgrc=g1Q0KNCKDQdr8M

Map Created, and Article Published,

on September 17th, 2020

Explaining Dylan Ratigan's Suspicions About the Total Cost of U.S. Federal Bank Bailouts in 2020

     On March 25th, 2020, the U.S. Senate passed a version of the C.A.R.E.S. Act (which stands for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security). Two days later, Trump signed a modified version of that bill into law.

     On March 25th, former M.S.N.B.C. host Dylan Ratigan appeared as a guest on Jimmy Dore's podcast to explain the total cost of the bill and the economic consequences of Coronavirus and Covid-19.
     The video of that interview is available here:
     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NgOQn4Asa0

     The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cost of the C.A.R.E.S. Act at just $1.76 trillion. Unfortunately, however, there doesn't appear to be widespread consensus about whether the total cost has amounted to $1.76 trillion or $2.2 trillion. In mid-April, TheHill.com reported that the bill would cost $1.76 trillion, not $2.2 trillion. Wikipedia puts the total cost at $2.2 trillion.

     The total cost of the C.A.R.E.S. Act is certainly confusing, and needs to be discussed and debated more. Especially considering Dylan Ratigan's view on the matter. Ratigan stated on Jimmy Dore's show that he believes the total cost of C.A.R.E.S. is a whopping $14 trillion!

     If this is accurate, then the C.A.R.E.S. Act could be a repeat - an echo - of the 2008-09 financial crisis. During that time, American economic researchers were debating whether the true cost of the bailouts was either $2.1 trillion, or $10.2 trillion, or $12 trillion, or $29.6 trillion.

     Some even used the bailouts as an opportunity to point out the increasing entanglement of American banks with European banks involved in the European sovereign debt crisis. This is important because most American's have never heard the phrases "Major Fiscal Exposure" and "Major Reported Fiscal Exposure". Exposure refers to the decrease in a government's value, and/or to the risk that a government's cash flow could suffer (as a result of currency fluctation and other factors).
     For the purposes of this article, I make reference to the term "exposure" to refer to the total cost of the federal government's long-term spending plans, for as long into the future as it has planned to spend (with both funded and unfunded liabilities included).

     The United States federal Government has planned $4 trillion or more each year over the next 75 years. This amounts to a 75-year exposure of $300 trillion or more. Some people are aware that this is a problem; that's because we have "unfunded liabilities" that result from not knowing how to fully pay for all of that spending.

     We certainly don't want an echo of 2008-2009, and we certainly want to make sure that the government stays fully funded (but doesn't grow too large and unwieldy) in the years to come.





     Let's review the numbers, to keep them all fresh in our heads before we go over what Ratigan said about the total cost.
     The low estimate of the total cost of the C.A.R.E.S. Act (given by the Congressional Budget Office) is $1.76 trillion.
     The high estimate of the total cost of the C.A.R.E.S. Act is $2.2 trillion.
     The Paycheck Protection Program (P.P.P.), which followed the C.A.R.E.S. Act., had a total cost of $349 billion.
     This puts the total cost of the C.A.R.E.S. Act and the P.P.P. combined, at somewhere between $2.09 trillion and $2.549 trillion.






     Dylan Ratigan stated that the total cost would be more like $14 trillion.

     Ratigan says that the combined cost would be about $14 trillion, because it is his understanding that the combined cost of all the late March and early April spending by the federal government, the Department of the Treasury (which sells bonds and securities to finance the debt), and the Federal Reserve Bank (the central bank that loans money to banks), would end up being approximately $14 trillion.

     That estimate is based on the following three claims, which Ratigan made on the show:

     1. The Federal Reserve Bank said that it would offer $1 trillion of overnight loans, every day until the end of March. Ratigan explained that these loans achieve what is called "back-stopping". In a back stop, a bank or investment firm commits to providing a last-resort support, such as a security in a securities offering, in order to guarantee that a company or bank will raise the money it intends to raise. The purpose of these overnight loans would be to, as Ratigan said, "make sure the banks have what they need to do what they want", by which he meant it makes sure the banks have the money they need to put where they think they need to put it. Ratigan said the Fed was giving banks $4 trillion to do what they want, so presumably these payments took place on March 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st.
     2. The Federal Reserve Bank is offering $1 trillion in 14-day loans, each week. It is unclear from Ratigan's statements whether this began on March 25th, or the 27th, or on a different date. Ratigan said that the bank also wanted to "put up $4 trillion in loan guarantees", so presumably there were, or there were supposed to be, four weeks in which $1 trillion per week was available to banks in the form of two-week loans.
     3. The Federal Reserve Bank (or perhaps the Treasury, it was unclear) "wants to put up $6 trillion directly." It is unclear what Ratigan meant by "put up".





     To put Ratigan's claims in perspective, and to help explain them better, we'll now look at where the claims about multi-trillion bailout costs are coming from.

     This article from CNBC, from June 2020, said the Federal Reserve hadn't come close to spending $2.3 trillion:
     http://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/the-fed-said-it-could-supply-the-economy-with-2point3-trillion-it-hasnt-come-close-so-far.html

    But this New York Times article from March 26th discusses a $4 trillion figure:
     http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/economy/fed-coronavirus-stimulus.html

     I regret not being able to provide more information on Ratigan's 3rd point (about the $6 trillion that the Fed wants to "put up directly"). And it would seem that no reputable news source would admit to a much higher cost. But that all depends on whether you consider the New York Times, C.N.B.C., or Dylan Ratigan, a more reputable source for news.







     I wish I could provide a more in-depth analysis of these figures, but that is all the information which I am able to glean about the topic. I provide this information here, to concisely explain Ratigan's views, and to bring together as many statistics as possible regarding the total cost of the C.A.R.E.S. Act and the 2020 bailouts.

     I apologize if any information is inaccurate or incomplete.

     My hope is that other readers and researchers can use this information, fact-check it, and message me to discuss and debate the real total cost. If you would like to e-mail the author, e-mail Joe Kopsick at jwkopsick@gmail.com

Chart comparing the sizes of the 2008-09 bailouts and the 2020 bailouts,

and several other government budget statistics.

Click, and open in new tab or window, to see in full detail

Written and Published on September 6th, 2020

Political Questionnaire: Are You a Joe Kopsick Voter? #2

Click on the above image in order to view in greater detail

Questionnaire created and published on May 12th, 2020

Updated (guns question edited) on August 27th, 2020

Political Questionnaire: Are You a Joe Kopsick Voter? #1

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Designed and Published on May 11th, 2020
Edited on May 13th, 2020

Based on Notes from a March 7th, 2020 post titled

"Trump vs. Biden vs. Bernie Sanders vs. Joe Kopsick on the Issues"

which can be viewed at the following link:

http://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2020/03/trump-and-biden-vs-bernie-sanders-vs.html

Partial List of Candidates Running for President in 2020

(?) = expressed interest, and/or formed an exploratory committee, but has not yet formally declared




Republican Party

1. de la Fuente, Roque "Rocky" (now running as the Reform Party candidate)
2. Hogan, Larry (seemed likely, but not running)
3. Istvan, Zoltan
4. Kasich, John (dropped out)
5. Sanford, Mark (dropped out)
6. Trump, Donald J. (incumbent)
7. Walsh, William Joseph "Joe" (dropped out)
8. Weld, William R. ("Bill") (dropped out)




Democratic Party

1. Abrams, Stacey (seemed likely, but not running)
2. Arth, Michael E. (probably ineligible; born in the United Kingdom)
3. Bennet, Michael (dropped out)
4. Biden, Joseph R., Jr. ("Joe")
5. Bloomberg, Michael (dropped out)
6. Booker, Cory (dropped out)
7. Boyd, Mosie
8. Braun, Harry
9. Brown, Sherrod (dropped out)
10. Bullock, Steve (dropped out)
11. Buttigieg, Pete (dropped out)
12. Castro, Julian (dropped out)
13. deBlasio, Bill (dropped out)
14. Delaney, John (dropped out)
15. Gabbard, Tulsi (dropped out)
16. Gillibrand, Kristen (dropped out)
17. Gleib, Ben
18. Gravel, Michael ("Mike") (dropped out)
19. Greenstein, Mark Stewart
19. Harris, Kamala (dropped out)
20. Hickenlooper, John (dropped out)
21. Horowitz, Ami (dropped out)

22. Inslee, Jay (dropped out)
23. Klobuchar, Amy (dropped out)

24. Messam, Wayne (dropped out)
25. Moulton, Seth (dropped out)
26. Nwadike, Ken, Jr.
27. o'Rourke, Robert Francis ("Beto") (dropped out)
28. Ojeda, Richard, Jr. (dropped out)
29. Patrick, Deval (dropped out)
30. Ryan, Tim (dropped out)
31. Sanders, Bernard ("Bernie") (dropped out)
32. Sestak, Joe (dropped out)
34. Steyer, Tom (dropped out)
35. Swalwell, Eric (dropped out)

36. Warren, Elizabeth (dropped out)
37. Wells, Robby (dropped out)
38. Williamson, Marianne (dropped out)
39. Yang, Andrew (dropped out)

Libertarian Party

1. Abramson, Max (withdrew)
2. Amash, Justin
3. Ardeleanu, Sorinne
4. Armstrong, Kenneth "Ken"
5. Ashby, Stephan Blake
6. Avouris, Aaron
7. Behrman, Daniel ("Dan")
8. Benedix, Daniel
9. Berry, Joey
10. Blevins, Kenneth
11. Brown, Keith
12. Campbell, Joseph Charles
13. Chafee, Lincoln (withdrew)
14. Christmann, Daniel
15. Cook, M. E. Sergeant, Sr.
16. Davenport, Daniel
17. DePriest, Kyler
18. Dryke, Benjamin T. (declined to run)
19. Dunham, Keenan Wallace
20. Ellison, Brian
21. Faas, Souraya
22. Faucett, Peyton
23. Gerhardt, Erik Chase
24. Gray, James P.
25. Gray, Phil
26. Greer, Evret
27. Hale, Dakota
28. Hartliep, Bradley Scott
29. Hill, Jedidiah "Jedi"
30. Hornberger, Jacob  (came in 2nd place)
31. Horst, Heather
32. Hurst, William Joseph
33. Jackson, Ryan
34. Jones, Cameron
35. Jefferson, Cedric
36. Jefferson, Dakinya
37. Jefferson, Demondria
38. Jorgenson, Jo (won nomination)
39. Kokesh, Adam
40. Ince, Cecil Anthony Southwest
41. Layton, Nyle Benjamin "Ben"
42. Lea, Brandin
43. Leder, Benjamin G. ("Ben")
44. Lee, Kip
45. Lee, Seymour Art
46. Lowe, Donald Eugene
47. Lynch, Lorraine
48. Maldonado, Joseph Allen
49. McAfee, John David (was rumored, seeking vice presidential nomination instead)
50. McCutcheon, Shaun
51. Monds, John
52. Morris, Rickey
53. Peach, Jason Daniel
54. Perry, Darryl
55. Peterson, Austin
56. Phillips, John R.
57. Reid, Derrick Michael
58. Richey, Steven Allen "Steve"
59. Robb, Samuel Joseph
60. Ruff, Kimberly Margaret ("Kim") (withdrew)
61. Salas, Sandra
62. Seder, Sam (possible)
63. Sibillo, Jason Michael
64. Smith, Rhett Rosenquest
65. Spivey, Mark Douglas
66. Sportsinterviews, Leonard
67. Stefan, Christopher
68. Supreme, Vermin (came in 3rd place, now running as write-in independent)
69. Vanacore, Louis
70. Vohra, Arvin
71. Weaver, Christopher Francis
72. Whipple, Krista Marie
73. White, Justin
74. Whitney, Mark Ellerton
75. Wilkerson, Terry
76. Williams, Andy
77. Wysinger, Demetra

Sources for this information include:

http://ballotpedia.org/Libertarian_Party_presidential_nomination,_2020

Learn more about many of the above candidates at the following link:
http://beinglibertarian.com/libertarian-potus-2020/

Green Party

1. Augustson, Alan
2. Desuasido, Ivan-Jan
3. Hawkins, Howie (won nomination; has also received the nomination of the Socialist Workers' Party and several other parties)
4. Hunter, Dario (came in 2nd place, now running as an independent)
5. Kreml, Bill
6. Lambert, Dennis
7. Manley, Elijah
8. Mesplay, Kent
9. Milnes, Robert
10. Moyowasifza-Curry, Sedinam (now running as Mark Charles's running mate)
11. Nichols, Curt
12. Ogle, James
13. Rolde, David
14. Schiakman, Ian
15. Ventura, Jesse (received several delegates, now running as a write-in independent)





Constitution Party
1. Blankenship, Don (nominated)
2. Bradley, Scott
3. Castle, Darrell
4. Copeland, Scott
5. Kraut, Charles




American Free Soil Party (may have disbanded, nominee unknown)
1. Ramos, Enrique
2. Seaman, Adam





American Solidarity Party
1. Carroll, Brian T. (won nomination)
2. Perkins, Joshua
3. Schriner, Joe (now running as an independent)





Other Parties
1. Collins, Phil (Prohibition Party)
2. de la Fuente, Roque (Reform Party)
3. Hammons, Bill (Unity Party)
4. LaRiva, Gloria (Party for Socialism and Liberation, Peace and Freedom Party, Liberty Union Party)
5. Myers, J.R. (Life and Liberty Party)
6. Segal, Jerome (Bread and Roses Party)
7. West, Kanye (Birthday Party)
8. Zion, Ben (Transhumanist Party)






Independent Candidates

1. Amash, Justin (ran as an independent, then as a Libertarian, then dropped out)
2. Charles, Mark
3. Cuban, Mark (said no in an interview, but did not rule it out)
4. Kroell, Ronnie
5. Marks, Christopher "Chris"
6. Pierce, Brock
7. Simmons, Jade
8. Supreme, Vermin (came in 3rd for the Libertarian Party nomination, now running as a write-in independent candidate)



Click on the following links to see more candidates for the 2020 presidential election,
including the full list of nearly 700 people who have formally filed to run for president:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

http://ballotpedia.org/List_of_registered_2020_presidential_candidates

http://politics1.com/p2020.htm?fbclid=IwAR2KbPhEXf93zsEa2b1pxUcEDJEFqsrk55eolC6wD6ogUBcDwfK6ifZoNMw

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/16-candidates-now-qualify-for-the-first-democratic-primary-debates/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third-party_and_independent_candidates_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election

Originally Published on April 16th, 2019

Expanded on April 18th and 29th; June 24th;
July 3rd and 22nd; August 26th; September 21st;
 November 8th, 13th, 14th, and 19th; December 3rd, 2019;
January 28th; March 5th and 16th;
April 9th, 13th, and 15th; May 5th, and July 31st, 2020