2020 Democratic Primary Predictions

     The most difficult states to predict are now, and will likely remain, California, New York, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

     I predict that California and New York will be close contests between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, Iowa will be a close contest between Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, and New Hampshire will be a three-way contest between Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

     If I had to guess, I suspect that Biden will take California and New York. It would be difficult to guess which state will be a closer call, but I believe that if Warren is more likely to take California than New York. I also suspect that Warren will beat Pete Buttigieg in Iowa. New Hampshire is virtually impossible to predict at this point, but if I had to choose, I think it's likely that either Biden or Warren will beat Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire (probably Biden, a little more likely than Warren).

     The map below depicts my predictions for the primary, if forced to choose who I think will win in all states (including states which I believe will be toss-up states).

     This makes the 2020 primary an almost certain win for Joe Biden. Even if Elizabeth Warren manages to take all four toss-up states, she will still trail Biden by about a thousand delegates (unless she somehow manages to pick up at least eight or ten states which I expect Biden to win).

     Please visit the following link to learn about how delegates will be allocated in the 2020 Democratic primaries:
     http://www.270towin.com/news/2019/04/23/updated-democratic-primary-map-pledged-delegate-counts_784.html#.XczkHldKhPY

Written, and maps created, on November 13th, 2019

Published on November 13th, 2019

Map created on mapchart.net

Predictions based on November 2019 Democratic primary polling,

especially those compiled by realclearpolitics.com